U.S. Fintechs May Benefit as Trump Pushes Affordability Agenda, Citi Says

U.S. fintech companies could find themselves in a stronger position as Washington leans toward a more populist, affordability-focused agenda ahead of the November 2026 midterm elections, according to analysts at Citigroup.

In a recent note, Citi said President Donald Trump’s latest policy initiatives are prompting investors to rethink parts of the financial sector. His renewed emphasis on lowering costs for consumers and small businesses could shift momentum away from traditional banks and toward fintech challengers offering more flexible, user-friendly services.

Citi highlighted several companies it believes are well placed to benefit, particularly those focused on consumer credit and small-business solutions. These include buy-now, pay-later providers Affirm and Klarna, as well as fintech platforms such as SoFi and Block. The bank also pointed to restaurant technology firm Toast and e-commerce giant Shopify as potential winners under an affordability-driven policy environment.

Traditional lenders initially rallied after Trump returned to the White House in 2025, buoyed by expectations of lighter regulation. However, Citi noted that the administration’s growing focus on affordability could redirect investor attention toward fintech firms that promise lower costs and simpler financial tools.

Performance across the sector has been mixed. In 2025, SoFi shares surged around 70%, while Affirm gained more than 22%. Block, on the other hand, fell over 23%, underperforming both its fintech peers and the broader market. By comparison, the Nasdaq Composite rose about 20.4% during the same period, as concerns around growth and intensifying competition weighed on Block’s payments business.

“Populism is on the rise as part of the affordability focus as midterms approach,” Citi said, adding that companies offering cheaper, more accessible lending options or services tailored to small businesses could stand to gain the most.

Trump has already signaled his intentions. Earlier this month, he proposed a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%, a move that drew strong opposition from major banks, including JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon. The president also signed an executive order aimed at limiting large institutional investors from competing with individual homebuyers, reinforcing his broader affordability agenda.

Citi believes these policies, if pursued further, could create a more favorable environment for smaller fintech firms while challenging the dominance of traditional financial institutions.